Read Chris Ricci opinion piece, Modesto Bee, planning

I thought Chris Ricci wrote a great piece on some important considerations on downtown Modesto entertainment district and importance to the economy, what additional help from City, et al might further help this cause.

Art Walk or Third Thursday Gallery and Art Walk was started by galleries in the downtown entertainment district area, not the 10th to 12th Street boundary for MPD and its monitor of clubs, but the whole of downtown, where there are a number of sites, old and new. This was a private business initiative, get art patrons down, meet the artists, the frame and matte resources, the gallery owners, that caught on with Mistlin, then with restaurants and shops supporting local artists, musicians, local designers without any real City or agency support. State Theatre signed on last year, and this is a long running now, six years since Anderson Gallery and Frame Shop and Chartreuse Muse got this going, all ages, and truly entertaining, free to view and shop, arts and cultural event, with artists pariticipation. Its part of what Chris means, as like music, its gaining regional notice as friends from other areas drop in from foothills, Stockton, elsewhere on Modesto Arts Scene, sample the music too, the eateries, all of which survive in a revitalized area, going through tough economic times as the rest of the county.

But, as Modesto is on way to Yosemite, et al, tourism is a part of our economy, and Music scene noted at MAMA awards by Chamber of Commerce is real business in our area. My friend Pop, who is stage manager for Blues Festival, works a lot in SF, and all over concert scene, lives in Stockton, notes they have nothing like the MAMAs to support music where he lives, like they do here.

Here's a note or blog from my personal one, where I sometimes get into old ruminations on construction, development issues, due to my experience in the industry here with Altamont Builders, Inc, and my family's in and out of area since Grandfather met up with Grandma in Manteca from Denmark around 1910, or year one anniversary of Patterson. http://360.yahoo.com/jdc104 in case you want to read more of that end of what I write on, that I don't usually post on modestofamous.com but we have something called the BluePrint process in the County, where you can put your own input into planning.

since I wrote this one, letters at modbee.com this morning has one on the effect of quality of life in the urge to urbanize Stan County, the example by the writer from Riverbank. Claude Delphia harps on the Plaza Circle parks and fact the overpass or underpass requires sinking the road bed of E. Las Palmas such it will more physically divide the park, ending the ambience of Apricot Fiesta as it is known. Development if ever, of the Tower Park stopped City of Modesto from spending $185 on water faucet there, due to imminent sale to developers, common reason, to end homeless use of park. Overpass at 9th Street affected properties Altamont Builders, Inc developed in 1979 era, (my familie's development company) such our succeeding partner owners lost a few parking spots, the overpass meets 10th street at their location, and the instersection now leads to a one block clumsy one way tie to M to get gas, and the closure of Kansas at N. Ninth, cut traffic down from 2nd intersection at development of 142 N. Ninth Street, to near nil as a tie in to Tully and Carver, that the former business 99 is a backwater route if you remember it from decades of using it. Centre Plaza never lived up to its performance art origins, cutting the theatres later built as Gallo Center, but its block off of Tenth Street, cut off North Modesto via College Avenue up to Davis High School parks at Rumble, to tie in to D Street and Yosemite Blvd to the east, such more focus on McHenry Avenue, that half of downtown from Double Tree over toward First Baptist Church, 9th to 11th Street hasn't developed much in new jobs despite a new Huff developed building, and revamp of the storage operation. Part of Downtown benefitted, part did not do more than involve less traffic. And connection to downtown from that end, is into the back streets, less direct to 11th Street and entertainment district, or 1010 Tenth, as you make a left to get to 11th, and probablematic on the first block from Virginia down 12th, with the use permit that allows for last 28 years for First Baptist to block the intersection for three nights and Sunday to get to my bank down 12th. Chris Ricci cites the improvement at Lincoln School site, but though an improvement, and I shop there a lot, the satelite stores have never been 100 percent filled. Some of this may be an improvement in lifestyle to some, to others not. Salida and North Modesto, might as well be a separate community with little history, nor a lot of long term residents, its the new side of town the newbies reside in, or refugees from older Modesto. Is it better or not. I find the box houses boring though new, doubt I'd have had fun building them, and the neighborhoods boring as look same to me, but add thirty years, boring with Trees if City crews or contractors able to water, maintain them. Tivoli got go ahead, for development fees at 168 million costs for infrastructure at today's fee rates, tying into a water and sewer system estimated requires half a billion in improvements. And the contractors working Village 1, 2, 3, on hiatus due to can't sell and make a profit with the foreclosure crisis with current building costs. So, my note on planning, topic of the blueprint process in the county, where many of the local general plans being looked at again, a part of allowance for development large and small used subprime money to finance buyers only to fail, some locals, and professionals, well George Osner retired from City, others in the process are but reps, for landowners wanting ag to urban transition, could be engineers good at structural detail, but are they really into parks and landscape, and beyond parking lot traffic engineering. Some quoted should have resume out of past projects, see if they were the good ones, or the iffy that often comes in the hodge podge of development interests, odd parcels that get included, hold outs, or people who leave it half done, up to the next developer to solve, or next planning commission or City council, or board of supervisors.

I've been thinking of dusting off the urban studies minor, my dismal economics major makes me wince ever more with economic news in the world, much less the country. The 97 mitsubishi mom drives, $20 now only adds just under 3/4 tank, small capacity, and food prices up, housing financing unavailable for many, and I just reviewed my credit scores, still in the excellent category, as been looking at a property in an odd area of CA where I didn't find foreclosure listings, up on the Lost Coast, but then no real action in sales either. We're doing some planning on it, the lot is in the utility district, need to find out if already in Coastal Development plan, apparently is, has nearby electrical, got to check the rating on the golf course, and though a small investment opportunity at a deal to close a friends estate, need to take a trip up with bro and sis, to see how far the drive, how beautiful the view our friend bought into, as our partner starting some 35 years ago with dad, he usually bought right, good properties so we need at least to see what we might get into for cash.

The urban studies minor, been thinking of attending some stancog county blueprint grass roots input meetings, as seen some oddities in Patterson review of general plan process, where City Council and City planning staff see the recent disaster in foreclosures might want to revise population projections, thus additional incorporation of new acreage into City limits, to reflect how the west side absorbs the new inventory of real estate owned, the problems of how Crows Landing site gets solved, transportation issues with the railroad crossing at downtown, as Modesto Village 1 had builder stop, and inventory in Modesto still taking a toll, pricing down, be awhile before values really get to old market before the subprime bubble burst, and the over supply of housing to qualified buyers. In Patterson, the Longs Drug Store closed downtown, local pharmacy taking over, such the in trouble box oldie only has one new version out there, and Sears is closing its outlet, 26 locals out of work, such the business climate for the area, is also worse, not just the glut of problem residential.

General Plan seems to have planning commission, cowed by developers and land owners who wish they'd sold in bubble, haven't noticed the still high default on mello roos, the infrastructure fees at near 98,000 per lot make new building impractical, and the drought California experiencing, redirects the State's attention to water contracts, not really improved or revisited in 35 years, and historically of great importance to all parts of the State, shows paper water contracts may not be deliverable, due to water quality issues. Westside has no real watershed out of the coast range, that isn't already intercepted in Livermore Valley, Tracy and Lathrop have about used up Northern trade out contracts, or Tracy wouldn't have continued growth without water, something I shopped twenty years ago when Pombo advertising such good deal on lots, if only you could hook up to water, or deep drill those wells. Solved really by the water deal on nearby Moss Landing area developer water deal, temporary if delivered, until such time as renegotiation. Kesterson is still too much Selenium, other irrigation salts to redistrbute as a water supply source for people, or even birds, and the water contracts on the canal, go to LA, Kern County up to Fresno, the closer you get to the Delta source, such as Stanislaus County, you get near zip. Diablo Grande hasn't taken off in 24 years as planned, so how much can be counted on for real success in Westside developer success, the K and B older development on the east side, or the recent ones bought with subprime mortgage failures and unpaid mello roos fees. Is Vernalis a hotbed of commuter residential? Big county workforce out near Grayson is the Honor Farm and Modesto and Ceres sewer treatment on other side of the River. Patterson just increased its sewer capacity for new westside commercial, where does it expand next, and why after 40 years of declared need, do none of the water sewage treatment operations not yet to tertiary water quality treatment, continuing to degrade ever saltier delta intrusion. May be another reason for the fish die offs.

San Joaquin River a bit down in flow unless at flood, and run off, etc, working on habitat and quality restoration, again, has prior water rights to the east at Source, and South before it joins the Delta with a certain amount of degradation by the time it hits merced county. Westside has always been drier, thus lower population, etc, than Eastern Stanislaus County, where power and water with MID and TID, with their deal to bay area and SF off Hetch Hetchy, rights the West of San Joaquin River didn't get in on at turn of the 19th Century. Diesel pricing sill up the pumping, even electrical generation costs for water distribution, canal links, such water will be going up, or just look at the bottled water pricing.

So..... a couple of things the planners out to note, their pro planners considered on the revise the pop figures, then do the boundaries option,

1. the foreclosure glut, and the decline in values, makes new housing untenable at rising costs of construction, current infrastructure fee structure, and drop of 50 percent in many areas out there, particularly in ranchette spots just outside annexation zone, on subprime loans, be awhile before that inventory, and not for sale, just can't sell at 2005 bubble peak purchase pricing, the latest wave to hit foreclosure list in 95363, realizes that value. You can't really get the incentive to hook up to city services when your ranchette has septic, well, and half its value. It may take seven to eight years to reup the values to 2005, or longer in some areas where speculation got newbies.

2. jobs.... commuters running out of money to commute, its expensive at 4.60 a gallon, fed projections don't seem to indicate this reverts. Rate of doubling, as in Modesto and rest of county, also double the number of unemployed folks, as the rate remained constant, but population doubled, and no increase in social services staff, or jobs to alleviate the unemployment and housing need for those out of work, so more welfare, more expensive, and totally inadequate for the task, Construction jobs, big sector in our area for thirty years off and on, particularly vulnerable, as when its built, job over. Stanislaus County unable to support local eateries, the real estate industry support dried up and closed, such we have lots of similar to the Sears closings in Modesto, a lot of vacant commercial property, more than should be of recent vintage development.

3. Water, already covered. If you can't water the lawn, your horse, your kids in the pool, quality of life more like 29 palms than Palm Springs, hot, dry, and wish you were at the beach, one reason the little Lost Coast property looks good to me, in rain belt.

4. Infrastructure. Its nice of developers, and then newbies to pay the bills via mello roos fees, but if they can't pay the mortgage, or stiff the taxes to pay them, the new improvements are unpaid for, no money to maintain, and don't pay for the services on as you go basis, such deficit where projected increase in fee payers indicate planning should take care of this. Need some disaster worst case entered into the consideration, not the mere real estate agent optimism of its such a deal. The big Nationwide Builders not so gleeful or in the market these days to buy from the raw landowners, even in prime markets until buyers qualified, considering smaller housing, less carbon footprint, new options, as they face the reality of the new costs to hasn't really gotten a big raise, middle class, stuck with real wages stable of the 1980s, with the lesser buying power of the 21st century.

While Patterson area was hottest growth area in Stanislaus County, and the county has interests in developing out the Crows Landing Air Station site, since the feds dumped it on them, and Newman had some growth as well, the County government powers, despite the significant growth spurt, shortage of housing and employment assistance, medical services, mental health services, general welfare, went ahead and didn't augment or increase service options, but cut out the mental health regional services center, (mostly hispanic on the public rolls, so you guess some of it) the Living Center in Patterson, done in by owner's feeling County gave him short shrift, barely does business with him in Modesto, and yet on west side we get the underage drinking scandal in Grayson, and health services likewise cut. Extension of County services in the area, despite the growth in population has decreased, not increased showing how the county wide planning process shortchanges the West Side, a key reason Westsider 's for years, have noted the County govt doesn't give them much, focuses on the richer resources of the East side, where water, power is cheaper.

But something I noticed some time ago, as refugee from Riverside, Stanislaus County has been a sort of poor ag county, still structured that way, doesn't really cope real well as a developing ever more urbanized metropolitan area in provision of services. To me, staffing is good in spots, but hasn't been up to City of Modesto, which has made plenty of mistakes in its transition to top heavy more manager operations, where wages to the workforce pretty much frozen for a long time, salaries up in the supervisor and manager range, not who maintains the roads, water system, sewers, parks, the Ed Nortons who do the job, so recent idea of cutting management time perks by City Council seems in order. After all, they got a salary increase matching the entire budget for kid's soccer program. As a desirable area to live once, we cut down more and more recreational services, parks maintenance, such it gets the appearance with real estate owned properties, more slumlike, than ideal spot to hit Yosemite, SF, or out in the country once in awhile. School drop out rates don't encourage investment in work force by new businesses entering area, and ag is more efficient, such education more important there as well. Rate our school districts when thinking of growth, and this process isn't just the westside issue, the whole region and multi county area needs to really work on it. Ag should be kept as likely a longterm profit center, with food pricing rising, but ag investment more costly too, with fuel, etc, that Fed politicos and planners need to rethink food stocks for security. Oustource the tomatoes is fine for year around availability, till you pay for the bunker oil on ships or aircraft fuel, or diesel for rail to get it to you from Chile or Mexico.

Right now, without some real reality checks on our planning models, and way we apply cookie cutter ideas supposedly that fits all, get back to the actual geography, resources available, economics of specific areas, will see more failures, rather than real planning successes. See Riverside, San Bernardino, tried all this, yet remains commuter population, only quadrupled since I moved, now with the highest commuter costs in the country, and nearly 3 hours in commute traffic to hit LA to go to work.

As for the lost coast, suggestion to her children from Mom, who will be 81 this week, is we in our early fifties to 46 consider this one as an option, still affordable, nice area, unlikely to grow real fast, but good place to live out the next thirty years, as option to use as shared second residential property, or long hold undeveloped lot investment where we can 't seem to get hurt, as good as cd rates currently, easy buy out to four children partners, but when she looks at planning these days, its ours to do, her decade or maybe two, no surety. 60s age baby boomers even with experience, our world economics just changed, and is this growth really good for us, the kids, as if we're lucky we live to see this 40 year planning out, but likely should take a look at the plots for the cemetary capacity, or whether ashes on to hawaii, and if the plane's fuel costs make that prohibitive. Its a new world, but planning issues i studied at UCR in early 70s still barely adopted or used realistically since, and not sure its truly helped in the interim, what has been applied, usually in myopic microcosm, not holistic consideration of its a bigger world we live in, than our urband lot, apartment, or small town, or large metropolis. Astronauts first trip to the moon, and comment on the fragile looking orb we live on said that in 1969.